Happy New Year…now back to work

Ah, the joys of holiday.  A few notes, to start things off:

  1. I couldn’t keep my eyes off markets while away – hopefully this is more a sign that I love what I do, rather than generic neuroticism.
  2. My post towards the end of December was shockingly OK with its vague predictions:  oil continues to plumb the depths, SPX had a decent sell off towards the end of December (first negative return in 6 years!!), and I was right to be worried about a long grains position.  I promise not to make many prognostications going forward, as it remains a mug’s game.
  3.  I turned off my trading systems for a week, while away at the cold English beach.  Though I would’ve made some decent $$ if I kept on the trends (short oil/nat gas/euro, mainly), I’m much happier to have kept the peace.  Nice to have the Type 2-error feeling, though (i.e. sadness due to lost opportunity, as opposed to sadness due to realised loss).
  4. Though late to the game, this week I’ll begin rebalancing my portfolio.  Main theme is (probably) a small shift from US long-only equities towards international equities and alternative equity books.

Glad to be back.


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