Ah, the joys of holiday. A few notes, to start things off:
- I couldn’t keep my eyes off markets while away – hopefully this is more a sign that I love what I do, rather than generic neuroticism.
- My post towards the end of December was shockingly OK with its vague predictions: oil continues to plumb the depths, SPX had a decent sell off towards the end of December (first negative return in 6 years!!), and I was right to be worried about a long grains position. I promise not to make many prognostications going forward, as it remains a mug’s game.
- I turned off my trading systems for a week, while away at the cold English beach. Though I would’ve made some decent $$ if I kept on the trends (short oil/nat gas/euro, mainly), I’m much happier to have kept the peace. Nice to have the Type 2-error feeling, though (i.e. sadness due to lost opportunity, as opposed to sadness due to realised loss).
- Though late to the game, this week I’ll begin rebalancing my portfolio. Main theme is (probably) a small shift from US long-only equities towards international equities and alternative equity books.
Glad to be back.