Christmas comes early….

My view of the markets these days:

Is it December yet?  Might as well be...  Source: Google Images.

Is it December yet? Might as well be… Source: Google Images.

The VIX is back to 13-ish level. That’s still considerably higher than the 10-level we saw in the summer, but BORING compared with the fun and games of October.

The main excitement remains in commodities, as well as some relatively decent volatility in currencies these days (thanks again, JCB).  Those plain-vanilla investors in stocks/bonds?  You’re doing just fine.  If volatility stays low like this, the reverse of the ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ seasonality effect should keep S&P returns for 2014 steady in the range of +10% or so.  Much rosier picture than S&P at 1850-ish just a month ago, right?

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