Scottish referendum: polls say too close to call, but markets seem less convinced

This morning’s press in the UK is all about the Scottish independence referendum.  I guess it’s a big deal, so why not.

Anyway, the news is that polls put the vote as too close to call – Scottish residents really could break away from the UK by the end of the week (I’m still in shocked disbelief at this possibility…like that matters).  What about financial markets?  A couple points:

  1. The conventional UK bellwether markets, the FTSE 100 and GBP/USD, don’t seem to be freaking out about the possibility of losing North Sea oil backing.  Probably at least part due to the uncertainty of how well Alex Salmond can negotiate the Scottish share of these resources, as well as whether Scotland continues to use the GBP.
  2. A less-conventional, predictive market, Betfair, has odds of 4/1 for an independence vote.  While that market may not be amazingly accurate, at least folks are using real money.  Anyway, those odds look a lot worse than ‘too close to call’.

Perhaps this is just my version of wishful thinking, but the folks with ££ aren’t convinced a ‘Yes’ vote for independence is going to happen tomorrow.  We shall see…


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