Stock market thoughts

I guess 2000 on the S&P500 is a given, sooner rather than later.

I hear two main strands of thought:

  • Securities markets are being manipulated higher due to Fed quantitative easing, which cannot last.
  • This is the least-respected bull market in history.  Underlying fundamentals are good, the retail investor hasn’t plowed into the market, and we are a long way from 1999 territory.

Which one is right?  Hell if I know.  Maybe neither.  In any case, I keep long and strong (though not as long as I was, say, 3 months ago) until we actually see:

  • some decent inflation uplift
  • much higher wages
  • long-duration bonds crashing
  • technicals moving against me
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